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Midwest Workforce Index
SM
Release Date: February 6, 2025
The Midwest Workforce Index (MWI) is a composite index that aggregates various workforce-related economic indicators. This ongoing research intends to create a succinct measure of how hiring conditions in the Midwest appear to have changed month to month. Values above 50 suggest hiring was easier this month than in the previous month.
December MWI at 51.4
The preliminary December 2024 MWI is 51.4, essentially unchanged from November’s 51.2. The recent values near 50 suggest hiring is not getting any easier, nor any harder. The next six months, with potential changes in tariffs and possible increases in deportations, will determine if 2025 will be a year of tightening labor markets or a slowly improving market, which is what we have been witnessing since the end of 2021. Note that the index is not displayed in the time period immediately following the recent recession due to the volatility of the various indicators that make up the index. Research is ongoing to better represent this period. It is important to note that this index represents the entire Midwest. Local migration patterns, industry mix, and other business and demographic variations will affect local conditions. As such, the MWI may not mirror your local experience.
MWI Time Series (2017-2024)
Note: This is preliminary work. Past values will change as the research continues.
The Basics
The Midwest Workforce Index is a research effort by Midwest Workforce Strategies. Past values of the index will change over time as the research continues and for additional reasons highlighted below. The MWI is a composite index calculated by aggregating many workforce-related economic indicators into a single dimensionless number. The design intent is to create a succinct, reasonable, and easily comprehensible measure of the change in effort required to hire new employees in the Midwest. The index design aims to show how hiring conditions may have changed in the Midwest from the previous month. It appears similar to other indicators like the Institute for Supply Management's PMI in that the range varies from 0 to 100, with a value of 50 indicating no change from the previous month. It differs in two primary ways - it is not a diffusion index, and a value above or below 50 indicates economic conditions opposite to what is suggested by the PMI. When the MWI has a value over 50, the aggregated indicators are trending in a way that suggests a possible improvement in the availability of workforce over the previous month. This would typically occur in a contracting economy. Attracting employees may be more difficult than in the prior month when MWI values fall below 50, typically occurring in an expanding economy.
The Implications
Since the index is based on various publicly released indicators, the MWI is published after the date the last aggregated indicator is released. As such, and because several indicators in the MWI are lagging indicators, the MWI should be considered a lagging indicator - the state of the workforce situation in the past. It is meant to serve as a broader confirmation of what you may have been experiencing and not as a gauge of current or future workforce conditions. More to the point, the index is meant to be used as a discussion piece as you try to understand what you see in local hiring conditions. For instance, do you work in a community that is naturally attracting or losing people? Is your industry rapidly growing or fairly level? Has your organization struggled with attracting and retaining individuals more than other organizations in your area?
Disclaimer and Terms of Use
The information provided here is part of an ongoing research project. Data is provided “as is” - solely to create a dialog about Midwest workforce shortages. The information should not be used to make business decisions. Midwest Workforce Strategies, LLC will not be liable for any damages related to your use of the data. Past MWI values will change over time as the research continues, government indicators are revised, and more recent values of the aggregated economic indicators are released. Seasonal variations in workforce conditions will likely be missed since most component indicators in the MWI are seasonally adjusted. Local conditions can vary significantly from Midwest averages, so the behavior of the MWI may not align with your regional observations. Some MWI component indicators are naturally ‘noisy’ and may generate unrealistic month-to-month variations in the MWI. Long-term MWI levels and trends are likely a better barometer of Midwest workforce conditions.
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